ABSTRACT
In the early 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 as a pandemic disease. COVID-19 was first discovered in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019. Since the emergence of COVID-19, its spread has been studied by various researchers around the world. The spread of COVID-19 is studied both on the spread between populations and between regions. The spread of disease between regions occurs when a population moves from one area to another. This requires investigation because the spread of the disease can occur from one region to another, so studies of regional factors are needed. In this study, the COVID-19 epidemic model has been established. The model describes the spread of the disease between regions. In the model, the population which is infected with COVID-19 is divided into two categories. The first one is called an asymptomatic patient. Asymptomatic patients are those who are infected or exposed to COVID-19 but have no detectable or significant symptoms in these patients. So that the patient is not considered ill, and the patient can infect healthy people. The second one is called a symptomatic patient. This patient causes symptoms that the patient is exposed to COVID-19. Thus, it is assumed that patient can be given treatment such as quarantine, so the patient is not to be able to transmit the disease to others. It is also assumed that asymptomatic patients can move to other areas and transfer the disease to others, but not symptomatic patients. This study aims to determine the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic with asymptomatic cases between regions and to identify the factors that influence them. The basic reproduction number (R0) of the model is sought to help identify the factors. Partial Rank Coefficient Correlation (PRCC), one of the methods of sensitivity analysis, is also used to identify key parameters that affect the model solution. Numerical simulations are used to show the behavior of the solution.